Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:32:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0C 0x0cc0…5765 sports 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,003 (+1%) realized +$4,993 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate77%76W / 23L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$6,867per market
Trades / day30.1pace
Fees−$3,782est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 69d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$50,723
other 28% −$18,355
world 0% −$727
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +15.0% +4.1% 85% 38% +7.7%
≤30d 91 -3.9% -13.0% 75% 26% -6.2%
≤90d 99 -0.7% -10.1% 77% 29% -5.3%
all 99 -0.7% -10.1% 77% 29% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 29% -5.3%
10% -18.7% 20% -14.4%
15% ← realistic here -26.6% 15% -22.7%
20% -33.8% 11% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 40% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$6,221) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
20.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,138 vs −$2,384 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$4,993
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses76 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$3,782
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 102
History coverage69d
Avg bet$6,867
Trades / day30.1
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Yes $41 $50 +$10 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $29,948 +$28,238 +94%
Toronto Argonauts vs. Ottawa Redblacks Jun 20 $231 +$169 +73%
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $38 +$13 +36%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 +$1 +79%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19,284 −$8,785 -46%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4,760 +$240 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49,500 +$500 +1%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $13,300 +$5,221 +39%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $3,311 +$37 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4,682 +$47 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $9,900 +$100 +1%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $316 +$33 +10%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,832 +$1,831 +65%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $68 +$10 +14%
British Columbia Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders Jun 14 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $494 +$6 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $23,991 −$12,986 -54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $1,996 −$737 -37%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $1,147 +$113 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $33,136 +$2,065 +6%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $345 +$155 +45%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $18,497 +$187 +1%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $3,157 −$3,154 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1,472 −$1,468 -100%
Paraguay to win the second half? Jun 13 $559 −$558 -100%
Toronto Argonauts vs. Montreal Alouettes Jun 13 $4,310 +$2,467 +57%
Toronto Argonauts vs. Montreal Alouettes: O/U 51.5 Jun 13 $111 +$4 +4%
Spread: Montreal Alouettes (-7.5) Jun 13 $81 +$2 +2%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $345 +$89 +26%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $3,726 +$206 +6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25,892 +$2,916 +11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $193 +$290 +150%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $89 +$3 +3%
Canada to win the second half? Jun 12 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,963 +$607 +20%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $18 $0 +1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $4,742 +$48 +1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $126 +$3 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7,022 −$7,022 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $13,753 −$2,845 -21%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4,650 +$350 +8%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1,363 −$1,040 -76%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 11 $325 −$171 -53%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $2,728 +$262 +10%
Mexico to win the second half? Jun 11 $468 +$5 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $6,156 +$2,092 +34%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $3,021 +$219 +7%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $6,221 −$1,530 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 87¢ $3,293 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 46¢ $10,066 2h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 49¢ $4,246 2h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 48¢ $916 2h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 49¢ $599 2h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 49¢ $3,065 2h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 51¢ $7,762 2h
Toronto Argonauts vs. Ottawa Redblacks BUY Toronto Argonauts 57¢ $231 14h
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $38 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $1 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland $12 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $5,075 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $5,075 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $8,700 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $134 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $33 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $33 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $7 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $7 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $9 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $7 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $20 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $130 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $54 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 99¢ $47 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 99¢ $11 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 99¢ $297 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 99¢ $990 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 99¢ $25 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 99¢ $4,773 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.47 · official $50.47 (match) · 2209 history records