Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0C 0x0cc1…cacf other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%21W / 26L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% $0
world 24% +$1
economics 15% $0
politics 13% +$1
culture 8% $0
weather 6% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 8 -0.6% -10.1% 38% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 8 -0.6% -10.1% 38% 0% -9.2%
all 47 +0.6% -8.9% 45% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.3%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.62 per $1 lost it wins $3.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses21 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage325d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 83¢ 84¢ $51 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $57 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $9 −$1 -6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $34 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Aug 10 $6 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 08 $2 $0 +6%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 06 $28 $0 +1%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 04 $2 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.90–0.94ºC in July 2025? Aug 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 03 $6 $0 +2%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $3 +$1 +21%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 01 $67 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 01 $66 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $8 $0 +0%
Kash Patel out by July 31? Jul 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Jul 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $51 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $19 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $38 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $57 4h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $12 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $19 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $22 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $34 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 60¢ $16 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 60¢ $16 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 60¢ $19 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $5 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $46 16d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 195d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.77 · official $51.77 (match) · 175 history records