Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:53:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cc6…87c5 world 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate46%22W / 26L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% $0
other 34% +$3
politics 6% −$1
sports 5% $0
crypto 3% +$3
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 21 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 21 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 48 +2.9% -6.9% 46% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 4% -9.2%
10% -15.8% 4% -17.9%
15% -23.9% 2% -25.8%
20% -31.4% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses22 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage476d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 75¢ 90¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $28 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $2 $0 -4%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $59 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $2 $0 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $60 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $65 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $14 −$1 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $28 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $31 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -44%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 11 $1 $0 -20%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 07 $12 $0 -1%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $11 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 03 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 06 $2 $0 +24%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Apr 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 16 $14 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 11 $14 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from South America? Apr 05 $15 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will 'Black Bag' gross between 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $13 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 11 $13 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $31 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $31 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $20 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $21 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $10 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $31 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 29h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $31 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $31 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $11 39h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $17 39h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $28 41h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $28 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $30 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $33 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $33 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $30 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $8 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $22 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.71 · official $2.71 (match) · 151 history records