Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:36:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0C 0x0cd5…af19 sports 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$88 (+5%) realized +$100 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +24.9% +13.0% 60% 60% -1.0%
≤30d 6 +21.5% +9.9% 67% 50% -1.7%
≤90d 6 +21.5% +9.9% 67% 50% -1.7%
all 6 +21.5% +9.9% 67% 50% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.9% 50% -1.7%
10% -0.6% 50% -11.1%
15% -10.2% 50% -19.7%
20% -19.0% 33% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$83 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized+$100
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage8d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Chun-Hsin Tseng 42¢ 40¢ $243 $231 −$12 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 18 $226 −$131 -58%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti Jun 18 $101 +$42 +42%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $101 +$75 +74%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $136 −$35 -26%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 18 $123 +$114 +92%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $126 +$5 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 42¢ $248 24m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng SELL Laslo Djere 58¢ $248 25m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 60¢ $119 28m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng SELL Laslo Djere 65¢ $119 32m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 65¢ $279 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng SELL Laslo Djere 60¢ $279 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 67¢ $319 1h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti SELL Lucio Ratti 77¢ $143 1h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 99¢ $163 1h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 66¢ $13 1h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti BUY Lucio Ratti 53¢ $101 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka SELL Alina Korneeva 39¢ $101 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Alina Korneeva 51¢ $136 2h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 54¢ $101 2h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears SELL Doosan Bears 99¢ $237 2h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 51¢ $123 4h
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Otto Virtanen 60¢ $95 8d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak SELL Kamil Majchrzak 41¢ $95 8d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 55¢ $131 8d
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs SELL Zizou Bergs 65¢ $131 8d
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs BUY Zizou Bergs 61¢ $126 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.13 · official $225.28 · 22 history records