Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:30:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cd5…bf27 sports 394 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$178 (+1%) realized +$80 · open +$98
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%207W / 180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$259est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$765now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$305
7 days−$125
14 days+$306
30 days−$636
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$610
other 10% +$194
world 2% +$130
politics 2% +$9
crypto 1% +$91
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +8.1% -2.2% 55% 55% -15.6%
≤30d 100 -5.6% -14.6% 52% 52% -16.8%
≤90d 387 +1.3% -8.3% 53% 53% -10.7%
all 387 +1.3% -8.3% 53% 53% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 53% -10.7%
10% -17.1% 52% -19.2%
15% -25.1% 50% -27.0%
20% -32.5% 45% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$57 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$765
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$98
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses207 / 180
Est. fees paid−$259
Open positions7
Markets (closed)387 / 394
History coverage88d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 78¢ 99¢ $147 $187 +$40 (+27%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 83¢ $115 $140 +$25 (+22%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 99¢ $74 $119 +$44 (+60%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $98 $101 +$3 (+3%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 72¢ $68 $71 +$3 (+5%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $64 $46 −$18 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $100 +$70 +70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$78 +76%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$29 +29%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $102 +$63 +62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 +$63 +62%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Jun 18 $47 +$49 +106%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$131 +129%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$84 +83%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $26 +$93 +365%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$21 +21%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $74 +$25 +34%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $85 +$15 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $53 +$11 +20%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 +$155 +152%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 +$34 +134%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $48 +$36 +76%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $51 +$71 +140%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 12 $42 +$40 +97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 12 $54 +$30 +57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $52 +$29 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$42 +42%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 11 $48 −$48 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $41 +$55 +134%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $49 +$47 +97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $50 +$46 +93%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $35 −$35 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $49 −$49 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $103 +$97 +93%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $58 −$58 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 09 $39 −$10 -26%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $46 +$50 +109%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 09 $55 −$55 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $50 +$33 +65%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $69 −$69 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 08 $71 −$71 -100%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 08 $72 +$78 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 59¢ $100 3d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 77¢ $101 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $102 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $102 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $102 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $102 5d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 48¢ $13 5d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 48¢ $33 5d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $69 5d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $102 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $101 7d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 7d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 7d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $26 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $101 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $101 10d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 11d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 11d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 11d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $53 12d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $85 12d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $25 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 53¢ $48 12d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $51 12d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $52 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $764.63 · official $764.63 (match) · 998 history records