Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:26:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cda…10ba other 13 markets active 23h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$94 (-42%) realized −$78 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -93% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -94% what you keep after slip
Net edge-94%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$70
sports 14% −$23
crypto 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-93.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -92.7% -93.4% 0% 0% -89.0%
≤30d 3 -92.7% -93.4% 0% 0% -89.0%
≤90d 3 -92.7% -93.4% 0% 0% -89.0%
all 3 -92.7% -93.4% 0% 0% -89.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -93.4% 0% -89.0%
10% -94.0% 0% -90.0%
15% -94.6% 0% -91.0%
20% -95.1% 0% -91.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -88% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -93% · $-wt -88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$26 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$78
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)3 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Neither team to score first? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 26 $50 −$39 -78%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 0¢ $11 22h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 26h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 26h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 26h
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 27h
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 27h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 27h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.06 · official $114.06 (match) · 15 history records