Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:35:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cdb…0250 other 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 239L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$24
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$43
sports 25% −$28
politics 7% −$6
crypto 6% −$5
economics 6% −$5
culture 6% −$5
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 249 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)249 / 250
History coverage134d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $54 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $577 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $173 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 16 $440 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $109 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $226 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $461 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $210 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $468 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $56 $0 +0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $127 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $211 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $126 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $318 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $193 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $438 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $282 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $183 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $353 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 09 $398 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $515 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $227 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $255 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $271 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $121 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $203 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $313 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 05 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $211 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $184 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $205 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $281 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $62 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 1h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $54 1h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $54 3h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 4h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 5h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 7h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 9h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 10h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 11h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 14h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 16h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $54 20h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $54 21h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 23h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 25h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $54 26h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $54 28h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 29h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 30h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $55 42h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 44h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 45h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 47h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.48 · official $53.48 (match) · 1360 history records