trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +28.8% | +16.6% | 75% | 50% | -6.3% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +11.8% | +1.2% | 55% | 45% | -6.8% |
| ≤90d | 19 | +7.8% | -2.5% | 58% | 42% | -6.8% |
| all | 23 | +6.2% | -3.9% | 61% | 35% | -6.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.9% | 35% | -6.9% |
| 10% | -13.1% | 30% | -15.8% |
| 15% | -21.5% | 26% | -23.9% |
| 20% | -29.2% | 22% | -31.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 89¢ | 99¢ | $261 | $292 | +$30 (+12%) |
| Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $13 | −$13 (-50%) |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 6¢ | $7 | $1 | −$6 (-81%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | Jun 19 | $26 | +$43 | +162% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Jun 17 | $10,028 | +$330 | +3% |
| France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 | Jun 16 | $24 | +$12 | +50% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $27 | −$21 | -79% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 10 | $9 | −$7 | -76% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $61 | +$21 | +34% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | Jun 07 | $242 | −$241 | -100% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 07 | $105 | −$7 | -7% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 02 | $587 | −$22 | -4% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? | May 24 | $366 | +$152 | +42% |
| Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? | May 21 | $60 | +$89 | +149% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | May 16 | $28 | −$23 | -80% |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | May 12 | $31 | −$7 | -22% |
| Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the | May 11 | $11 | −$11 | -98% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Apr 07 | $50 | +$2 | +5% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Apr 05 | $114 | +$21 | +18% |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Mar 28 | $9,464 | +$265 | +3% |
| Devils vs. Stars | Mar 27 | $16 | +$12 | +72% |
| Oilers vs. Utah | Mar 26 | $25 | +$31 | +122% |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? | Mar 21 | $210 | −$43 | -21% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Mar 05 | $351 | +$26 | +8% |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | Mar 05 | $1,041 | +$49 | +5% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Mar 01 | $2,364 | +$65 | +3% |