Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0ce5…9298 crypto 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$931 (-6%) realized −$931 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate46%42W / 50L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$312
7 days−$320
14 days−$421
30 days−$371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$779
economics 25% −$4
crypto 13% −$317
world 5% −$1
politics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -14.1% -22.2% 45% 45% -33.6%
≤30d 45 -16.2% -24.2% 44% 33% -29.4%
≤90d 56 -13.4% -21.7% 52% 30% -25.8%
all 92 -11.2% -19.7% 46% 24% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 24% -15.6%
10% -27.4% 20% -23.7%
15% -34.4% 18% -31.0%
20% -40.8% 16% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$36 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$931
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses42 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage163d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $163 −$111 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$47 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $114 −$7 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $75 +$67 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$16 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $54 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$20 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$17 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $55 +$49 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $63 +$28 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $55 +$49 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $40 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $38 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $15 +$70 +472%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 30 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 30 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $112 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $59 +$54 +91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $26 +$2 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $23 +$2 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 13 $22 +$3 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 13 $193 −$127 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $113 +$13 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $112 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $27 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $27 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $109 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $12 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $51 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $38 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $111 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $19 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $55 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $44 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $46 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $28 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $63 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 279 history records