Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:40:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0ce6…9469 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$66,906 (-61%) realized −$65,439 · open −$1,467
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%7W / 14L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,997per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2,563now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,698
7 days−$63,905
14 days−$63,905
30 days−$63,905
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$63,642
other 20% −$228
sports 13% −$12,385
world 9% +$7,850
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -14.2% -22.3% 40% 40% -86.7%
≤30d 10 -14.2% -22.3% 40% 40% -86.7%
≤90d 11 -22.0% -29.4% 36% 36% -87.2%
all 21 -17.3% -25.1% 33% 33% -65.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 33% -65.4%
10% ← realistic here -32.3% 33% -68.8%
15% -38.8% 33% -71.8%
20% -44.8% 33% -74.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -86% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$2,494) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,259 vs −$5,911 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$2,563
Realized−$65,439
Unrealized−$1,467
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage186d
Avg bet$4,997
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse Anna Kalinskaya 51¢ $1,530 $63 −$1,467 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,319 +$1,200 +91%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $1,636 −$1,620 -99%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $1,620 −$1,620 -100%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $1,078 +$1,422 +132%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,728 +$2,317 +134%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $1,000 +$1,000 +100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $1,992 −$1,961 -98%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Jun 21 $28,053 −$28,053 -100%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Jun 21 $35,589 −$35,589 -100%
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch Mar 30 $3,047 −$3,047 -100%
Israel strikes Iran before 2026? Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Mar 22 $996 −$996 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 4 Winner Mar 22 $969 −$969 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Mar 22 $1,599 −$1,599 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs Mar 02 $999 −$32 -3%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 28 $15,314 −$4,141 -27%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $5,500 +$3,806 +69%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 28 $2,494 +$5,743 +230%
Will Drake perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $2,040 −$2,025 -99%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $299 +$327 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Anna Kalinskaya 51¢ $1,552 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,319 9h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $102 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $11 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $29 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $28 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $40 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $3 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $22 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $28 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $26 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $27 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $54 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $27 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $4 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $23 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $4 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $1,209 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $13 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $32 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $38 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $3 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $54 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $14 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $14 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $14 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $100 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $3 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $16 18h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $540 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,563.00 · official $2,563.00 (match) · 291 history records