Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:58:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0C 0x0ce6…6bb5 crypto 751 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (279 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,008 (+15%) realized +$4,019 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%347W / 563L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day278.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,392
other 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (279 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 702 -21.3% -28.8% 35% 33% -35.7%
≤30d 910 -16.2% -24.2% 38% 36% -30.2%
≤90d 910 -16.2% -24.2% 38% 36% -30.2%
all 910 -16.2% -24.2% 38% 36% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover278.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 36% -30.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 32% -36.9%
15% -38.0% 29% -43.0%
20% -44.1% 19% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$32 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$4,019
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses347 / 563
Open positions1
Markets (closed)910 / 751
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day278.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 910 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Down 24¢ 16¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$55 +9893%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$60 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$60 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$60 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$60 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$60 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$60 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$60 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$60 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$60 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$60 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$60 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$60 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$40 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$60 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$60 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$60 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$40 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$29 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$60 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $30 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $21 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $17 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $8 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $39 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $31 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $67 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $23 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.34 · official $28.08 · 3500 history records