Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:40:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0ce7…2309 crypto 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%79W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$9
other 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% −$4
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 30 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 81 -2.1% -11.5% 98% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses79 / 2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)81 / 87
History coverage235d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 93¢ 93¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 12 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 9? Jun 10 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 20? Jun 04 $105 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in May? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 14? May 19 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 8? May 13 $113 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April? May 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026? May 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 23? Apr 29 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 17? Apr 20 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 15? Apr 17 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 4? Apr 06 $121 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $3 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? Apr 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 16? Mar 18 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 13? Mar 14 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 10? Mar 12 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 7? Mar 09 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 06 $113 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Mar 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 1? Mar 02 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 25? Feb 26 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 2 Feb 23 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 2 Feb 21 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 17? Feb 19 $108 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 15? Feb 15 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 1 Feb 13 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 9 Feb 10 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 7? Feb 08 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on February 3? Feb 05 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on February 1 Feb 02 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 3 Jan 31 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $111 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $5 58m
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 93¢ $4 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 93¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $116 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $114 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $117 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $115 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $105 27d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $111 33d
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 36d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $113 38d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 96¢ $6 41d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? BUY No 98¢ $5 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 54d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $114 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $116 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $111 66d
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $120 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $123 70d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $121 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $108 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $108 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $111 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $108 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $109 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.21 · official $25.21 (match) · 170 history records