Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:15:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0C 0x0ce8…22ad other 10 markets active 8d ago coverage 64d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized −$31 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$34
politics 22% +$29
crypto 7% −$75
finance 5% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -19.0% -26.7% 0% 0% -26.7%
≤90d 9 -3.9% -13.1% 56% 22% -15.0%
all 9 -3.9% -13.1% 56% 22% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 22% -15.0%
10% -21.4% 11% -23.2%
15% -29.0% 0% -30.6%
20% -36.0% 0% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$32 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage64d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $177 $186 +$8 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $239 −$45 -19%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 13 $179 +$14 +8%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $95 +$7 +7%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $140 −$9 -6%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $134 +$5 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 26 $114 −$75 -66%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 23 $89 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $100 +$15 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 22 $80 +$18 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $183 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $161 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $206 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $229 38d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $234 42d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $33 42d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 61¢ $72 42d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $51 49d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $51 49d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $123 52d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $131 52d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $140 56d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 32¢ $140 57d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $124 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? SELL Yes 4¢ $39 59d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $89 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes 12¢ $114 63d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 7¢ $115 63d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $95 63d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? SELL Yes 51¢ $97 63d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? BUY Yes 41¢ $80 66d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 66¢ $80 66d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 65¢ $60 66d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 66d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 31¢ $133 67d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 67d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $89 69d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 66¢ $61 69d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 54¢ $99 72d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.57 · official $185.57 (match) · 78 history records