Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:51:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0C 0x0cea…5a4d world 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$23 (+11%) realized +$26 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 95% +$22
other 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +13.0% +2.2% 67% 67% +7.6%
≤30d 6 +13.0% +2.2% 67% 67% +7.6%
≤90d 6 +13.0% +2.2% 67% 67% +7.6%
all 6 +13.0% +2.2% 67% 67% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 67% +7.6%
10% -7.6% 50% -2.7%
15% -16.5% 50% -12.1%
20% -24.7% 33% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.53 per $1 lost it wins $3.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage5d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 74¢ 72¢ $78 $76 −$2 (-2%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 47¢ 40¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $15 −$1 -8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $60 +$9 +14%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 20 $11 +$7 +64%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +44%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $20 +$13 +64%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.82 · official $84.72 (match) · 14 history records