Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:27:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cec…0f99 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 451d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$1
other 19% $0
politics 8% $0
crypto 4% −$1
sports 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 17 +0.2% -9.4% 53% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 17 +0.2% -9.4% 53% 0% -9.3%
all 38 +0.7% -8.9% 47% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 3% -9.5%
10% -17.6% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

451d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage451d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $44 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $38 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $7 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $53 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $42 +$1 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $78 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $41 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $38 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $38 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $114 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $15 $0 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 +1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 18 $1 $0 -8%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Apr 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $22 $0 -1%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 14 $0 $0 +42%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Giants make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 09 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in April? Apr 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 08 $22 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 07 $22 $0 +1%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Apr 04 $21 −$1 -3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 04 $1 $0 -14%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April? Apr 03 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $370b on March 31? Mar 30 $23 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $44 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 98¢ $21 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 98¢ $18 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 96¢ $38 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 12¢ $9 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $34 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $4 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $5 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $39 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $39 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $39 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $22 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $17 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $4 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $14 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.25 · official $43.25 (match) · 128 history records