Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:25:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0C 0x0cef…a1cd crypto 868 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$199 (-1%) realized −$199 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%842W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 7 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 30 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 3% -7.4%
all 868 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 3% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -10.4%
10% -18.3% 1% -19.0%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.4% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$21 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$199
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses842 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)868 / 868
History coverage186d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 868 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 02 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 02 $66 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 17 $40 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 17 $38 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 17 $36 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 16 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 16 $30 +$5 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 16 $30 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 15 $29 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 14 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 14 $28 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 14 $28 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Apr 14 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 14 $27 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 13 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 13 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 13 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 13 $14 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 13 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 09 $105 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 09 $103 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 09 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 09 $119 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 09 $117 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 09 $116 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 09 $113 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 09 $112 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $25 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 50d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 65d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $38 65d
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $36 65d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 65d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 65d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 65d
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 67d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $29 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $28 68d
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $28 68d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 68d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $27 68d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1923 history records