Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:34:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0C 0x0cf2…2b5a other 32 markets active 12d ago coverage 543d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$27 (+7%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 31L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% $0
sports 33% +$27
politics 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 32 +2.2% -7.5% 3% 3% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 3% -2.8%
10% -16.4% 3% -12.1%
15% -24.4% 3% -20.6%
20% -31.8% 3% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$0 · ×1852.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×84.19 per $1 lost it wins $84.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

543d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage543d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 21 $7 $0 -2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 17 $6 $0 -0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Jul 17 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Jun 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Sparta Prague win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 24 $8 $0 +0%
Flyers vs. Sabres Apr 19 $36 +$28 +75%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Newcastle United wins the Premier League? Dec 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 18 $112 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 18 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 12d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $5 12d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $6 36d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $6 36d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $6 61d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $6 61d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 88d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 88d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 102d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 102d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $8 121d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 121d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 150d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 150d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 184d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 184d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7 213d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 213d
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 241d
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 241d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $7 248d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 269d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 307d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 307d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 307d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 312d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 312d
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 338d
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 338d
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 344d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records