Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0C 0x0cf2…b1e2 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,957 (-55%) realized −$1,951 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$191
7 days+$149
14 days−$1,981
30 days−$1,981
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$2,126
sports 28% +$140
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +17.3% +6.1% 50% 38% +39.2%
≤30d 18 -15.7% -23.7% 39% 33% -64.0%
≤90d 18 -15.7% -23.7% 39% 33% -64.0%
all 18 -15.7% -23.7% 39% 33% -64.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 33% -64.0%
10% -31.0% 28% -67.4%
15% -37.7% 17% -70.6%
20% -43.8% 17% -73.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$213 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized−$1,951
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage20d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Algeria 58¢ 57¢ $184 $183 −$2 (-1%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $96 $93 −$3 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Yes $2 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $81 +$215 +266%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $27 +$5 +18%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $23 −$5 -20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $84 −$65 -77%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$29 +146%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $5 +$1 +29%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 09 $571 −$61 -11%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 08 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Singapore win on 2026-06-05? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? Jun 08 $59 −$12 -21%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 08 $186 +$108 +58%
Exact Score: Singapore 0 - 0 China PR? Jun 08 $23 −$23 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 08 $2,087 −$2,087 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $15 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $15 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $15 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $15 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $15 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $15 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $97 1h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde $25 26h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 21¢ $16 26h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $15 26h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 43¢ $14 26h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $13 26h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 65¢ $12 26h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 36¢ $11 26h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 22¢ $50 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $10 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $10 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 6d
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY El Salvador 90¢ $81 9d
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY El Salvador 90¢ $181 9d
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY Qatar 11¢ $110 9d
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY El Salvador 90¢ $100 9d
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY El Salvador 90¢ $100 9d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 9d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.39 · official $276.39 (match) · 207 history records