Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:33:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
0C 0x0cf3…ddfc world 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-13%) realized −$59 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$327now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% −$7
other 12% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-58.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -53.9% -58.3% 0% 0% -53.1%
≤90d 2 -53.9% -58.3% 0% 0% -53.1%
all 2 -53.9% -58.3% 0% 0% -53.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.3% 0% -53.1%
10% -62.3% 0% -57.6%
15% -66.0% 0% -61.7%
20% -69.3% 0% -65.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$30 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$327
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage12d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $329 $327 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals Jun 14 $57 −$55 -97%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 14 $71 −$6 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $329 1h
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ goals BUY Yes 6¢ $57 11d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 11d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $34 11d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $31 11d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $34 12d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $36 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $327.45 · official $329.22 (match) · 7 history records