Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:53:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0C 0x0cf3…3506 crypto 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$4 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$134
other 15% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.3% -8.3% 86% 57% +0.8%
≤30d 7 +1.3% -8.3% 86% 57% +0.8%
≤90d 7 +1.3% -8.3% 86% 57% +0.8%
all 7 +1.3% -8.3% 86% 57% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 57% +0.8%
10% -17.1% 29% -8.9%
15% -25.1% 29% -17.7%
20% -32.5% 0% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$25 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×6.34 per $1 lost it wins $6.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$323
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 46¢ 50¢ $300 $323 +$23 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $303 +$40 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $204 +$78 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $200 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $200 +$3 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $216 +$23 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $239 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $216 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.93 · official $322.93 (match) · 21 history records