Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:11:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0C 0x0cf6…0e3b sports 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (175 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,819 (+2%) realized +$1,820 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate55%124W / 102L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day175.3pace
Fees−$1,031est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$140
7 days+$349
14 days+$1,059
30 days+$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$610
other 41% +$237
world 1% +$13
crypto 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (175 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+49.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 +37.9% +24.8% 49% 17% -8.0%
≤30d 226 +65.4% +49.6% 55% 21% -9.1%
≤90d 226 +65.4% +49.6% 55% 21% -9.1%
all 226 +65.4% +49.6% 55% 21% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover175.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +49.6% 21% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here +35.3% 18% -17.8%
15% +22.2% 16% -25.7%
20% +10.3% 14% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +67% → late +64% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$37 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$1,820
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses124 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$1,031
Open positions1
Markets (closed)226 / 209
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$355
Trades / day175.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $121 $120 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Jun 15 $2 +$2 +103%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs Jun 15 $94 −$234 -250%
Counter-Strike: 2007 vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cha Jun 15 $0 $0 -340%
Will Club Blooming vs. Carabobo FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Jun 15 $50 −$47 -96%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $0 −$1 -342%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -250%
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-05-21? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$2 -81%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Jun 15 $50 −$45 -90%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Jun 15 $253 −$252 -100%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - European Pro Leag Jun 15 $10 −$17 -175%
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs Drama eSports (BO3) - Exort Series Contenders Jun 15 $18 −$17 -96%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs 2007 (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champions Jun 15 $6 −$10 -163%
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-25? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will IK Start win on 2026-05-25? Jun 15 $3 −$25 -833%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 +$17 +119%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2,955 +$70 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $108 +$82 +75%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -48%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2,097 +$63 +3%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $120 +$7 +6%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,532 +$5 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $66 +$311 +471%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $278 −$23 -8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $181 +$10 +5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $668 −$15 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $360 −$19 -5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $84 −$18 -22%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $250 +$25 +10%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $36 +$14 +38%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,453 +$12 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $37 −$12 -33%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $36 +$26 +70%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $677 −$4 -1%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $360 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,324 +$27 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $480 +$9 +2%
Will FF Jaro vs. HJK Helsinki end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$5 +389%
Will Tampereen Ilves win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $0 +$1 +231%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $142 −$8 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $105 −$24 -23%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $660 +$18 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,983 +$65 +3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $301 +$16 +5%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,066 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 38¢ $31 34m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL No 54¢ $262 41m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL No 54¢ $5 41m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL No 54¢ $7 41m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 55¢ $284 42m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $352 43m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $285 43m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $71 43m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $66 44m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 46m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 46m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 46m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $72 50m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $132 55m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 56m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 56m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 56m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $11 56m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 56m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 56m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 56m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 56m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 56m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 56m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 56m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 56m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 57m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 57m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 57m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.70 · official $119.70 (match) · 3500 history records