Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:54:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0C 0x0cf9…dbb9 crypto 1282 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$478 (+4%) realized +$477 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate59%758W / 518L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day38.8pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$119
14 days+$305
30 days+$364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$521
crypto 36% −$128
other 22% −$160
world 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +13.6% +2.8% 56% 51% -0.2%
≤30d 518 +5.4% -4.7% 57% 47% -5.2%
≤90d 1276 +2.3% -7.4% 59% 46% -7.7%
all 1276 +2.3% -7.4% 59% 46% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 46% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 36% -16.5%
15% -24.4% 28% -24.6%
20% -31.8% 22% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$477
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses758 / 518
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1276 / 1282
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day38.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $53 +$95 +179%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$28 +136%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $42 +$37 +89%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 +$9 +170%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Will S Jun 18 $10 +$19 +188%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$7 -42%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $10 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $25 +$27 +105%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score AND Will Czechia win on Jun 18 $20 −$2 -8%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$11 +54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $25 +$19 +74%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $40 −$5 -13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $36 −$16 -44%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $47 −$42 -88%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $10 +$34 +328%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$13 +66%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $40 +$7 +18%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $5 +$9 +177%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $5 +$8 +154%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 +$8 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $10 +$8 +77%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $19 +$9 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $14 +$9 +66%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $31 +$37 +121%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$8 +74%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $19 +$16 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $148 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $48 5h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $15 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $8 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $78 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $24 8h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 51¢ $10 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $26 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $14 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $10 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 36¢ $5 14h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 28h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $52 29h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 51¢ $10 29h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Will S BUY 34¢ $10 31h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $25 31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 32h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 32h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score AND Will Czechia win on SELL 23¢ $19 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 49¢ $9 33h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $10 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.39 · official $56.39 · 3500 history records