Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:31:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d01…5597 politics 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,253 (-1%) realized −$1,253 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate30%38W / 89L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,003per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,033now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$8
14 days−$23
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$67
other 35% −$232
sports 12% −$964
world 4% −$25
culture 2% −$4
crypto 2% +$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 69 -16.4% -24.4% 10% 3% -12.6%
all 127 -2.2% -11.5% 30% 10% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 10% -10.4%
10% -20.0% 10% -19.0%
15% -27.7% 9% -26.8%
20% -34.8% 6% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,383) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$33 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$1,033
Realized−$1,253
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses38 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage149d
Avg bet$1,003
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $669 $669 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $364 $364 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,369 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,127 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $3,366 −$5 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,180 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3,604 −$4 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,210 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,294 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $2,417 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $1,128 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,125 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,063 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,443 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $348 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $572 +$1 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $1,723 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,600 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $827 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $3,273 −$4 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $2,748 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,868 −$3 -0%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 20 $1,383 −$1,383 -100%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,477 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,651 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,369 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,383 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,322 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 02 $292 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 02 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,960 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,716 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,059 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,350 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $6,231 −$5 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,242 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $3,422 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $256 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $343 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $269 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $344 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $2,682 −$3 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $416 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $413 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Apr 06 $744 −$744 -100%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5) Mar 31 $1 +$1 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $364 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $268 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $269 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $669 3d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,125 5d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,127 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,255 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,257 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,178 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,180 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,004 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,005 8d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,208 8d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,210 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,292 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,294 8d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,028 12d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,030 12d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,126 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,128 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,124 16d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,125 16d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $894 16d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $895 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,062 17d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,063 17d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,042 17d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,044 17d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $349 20d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $349 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,032.98 · official $1,032.98 (match) · 420 history records