Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:45:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0D
0x0d03…fc08
crypto · 51 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$16 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses32 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage122d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 2 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 80¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? No 84¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 85¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $355-$360 on the final day of trading of Jun 12 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $395-$400 on the final day of trading of th Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +15%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 01 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 12PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 -12%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 26 $1 $0 +26%
Will FC Twente '65 vs. NEC end in a draw? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 28? Mar 01 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 23 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 23 $6 −$3 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 23 $4 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 22 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on February Feb 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 202 Feb 18 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 Feb 18 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 18 $14 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 18 $7 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 17 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 17 $11 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 16 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4AM ET Feb 16 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 16 $11 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 16 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 16 $4 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 16 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 16 $19 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 16 $11 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 16 $20 −$12 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Feb 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 16 $8 −$4 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Minneapolis" during the Fighting Oligarchy ra Feb 14 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1AM ET Feb 12 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 11 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 11 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 11 $12 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 81% −$16
other 10% $0
weather 4% −$1
sports 2% +$1
world 1% +$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 80¢ $1 1h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $395-$400 on the final day of trading of th SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $355-$360 on the final day of trading of SELL No 11¢ $0 1h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 32¢ $0 2h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 83¢ $1 3h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $395-$400 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 74¢ $1 3h
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $355-$360 on the final day of trading of BUY No 77¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 77¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 74¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $3 29h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? BUY No 75¢ $2 37h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 84¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 9? SELL No 97¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 84¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 9? BUY No 85¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 96¢ $1 4d
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 12PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 46d
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 12PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 46d
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 46d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $1 47d
Will FC Twente '65 vs. NEC end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $1 48d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 48d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? SELL No 88¢ $3 51d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? BUY No 76¢ $1 52d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? SELL No 74¢ $1 52d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? BUY No 50¢ $1 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.1% -6.7% 80% 70% -3.6%
≤30d 10 +3.1% -6.7% 80% 70% -3.6%
≤90d 17 -11.5% -20.0% 65% 59% -13.3%
all 49 +11.4% +0.8% 65% 47% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 47% -15.3%
10% -8.8% 33% -23.4%
15% -17.6% 10% -30.8%
20% -25.7% 4% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.48 · official $2.13 (match) · 179 history records