Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:29:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0D
0x0d05…6a81
world · 175 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$36,400 +46%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$40,451 · open −$1,484
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,450
Realized+$40,451
Unrealized−$1,484
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses59 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)164 / 175
History coverage116d
Avg bet$454
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 11 History 164 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$9,033
14 days−$10,339
30 days+$8,008
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,038 $2,411 +$373 (+18%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 2¢ 1¢ $827 $552 −$275 (-33%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $507 $522 +$16 (+3%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $732 $376 −$356 (-49%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,316 $185 −$1,131 (-86%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 80¢ 52¢ $260 $170 −$90 (-35%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $95 $103 +$8 (+8%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $35 $57 +$21 (+60%)
Will Trump say "Oman" this week? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $41 $45 +$4 (+9%)
Kurds declare independence from Iran? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $27 $23 −$4 (-14%)
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? Yes 29¢ 3¢ $56 $7 −$50 (-88%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $189 +$69 +37%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 11 $19 −$3 -13%
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, Jun 11 $17 −$2 -13%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $72 −$72 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $116 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $16 −$13 -80%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Trump say "Hottest Nation" this week? Jun 08 $105 −$99 -95%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $20 +$5 +24%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1,489 +$421 +28%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $12 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $58 +$5 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $413 −$24 -6%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $711 +$249 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $283 −$8 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 06 $1,046 −$787 -75%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $410 +$210 +51%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 06 $428 −$329 -77%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 06 $81 −$81 -100%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 06 $605 −$205 -34%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 06 $455 −$183 -40%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 06 $6,997 −$6,360 -91%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 06 $2,406 −$1,631 -68%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 06 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 05 $14 −$10 -69%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Jun 03 $6 −$2 -38%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $35 −$29 -83%
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30? Jun 03 $6 +$2 +37%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1,826 −$971 -53%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $388 −$88 -23%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $28 +$19 +69%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 31 $37 −$37 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 31 $14 −$14 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 31 $104 −$104 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $415 −$69 -17%
5kt meteor strike in 2026? May 30 $31 +$2 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $619 −$296 -48%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 26 $668 −$164 -25%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 26 $561 −$143 -26%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 26 $747 −$108 -14%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 26 $746 −$345 -46%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 25 $169 +$1,723 +1019%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 83% +$44,267
politics 9% −$6,584
other 7% +$1,777
finance 1% −$488
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "Oman" this week? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 43m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $84 57m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $95 2h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $299 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $391 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 9h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,738 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 15¢ $133 18h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 19h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 20h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 20h
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $17 20h
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, SELL Yes 3¢ $14 20h
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? SELL No 2¢ $17 20h
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? SELL No 2¢ $31 20h
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? SELL No 1¢ $19 20h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $162 20h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $91 20h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2,327 20h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $361 20h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $463 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $62 21h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL Yes 6¢ $62 21h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 21h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 32¢ $72 21h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 5¢ $66 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -39.8% -45.6% 30% 20% -60.1%
≤30d 64 +2.3% -7.5% 33% 25% +15.7%
≤90d 100 +11.7% +1.1% 31% 24% +0.5%
all 164 +55.0% +40.3% 36% 27% +26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +40.3% 27% +26.2%
10% ← realistic here +26.9% 23% +14.1%
15% +14.6% 21% +3.1%
20% +3.4% 18% -7.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,450.14 · official $4,450.14 (match) · 3500 history records