Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:56:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0D 0x0d0b…8fe2 crypto 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$841 (+26%) realized +$841 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%81W / 54L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$228
7 days+$454
14 days+$737
30 days+$738
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$44
other 48% +$625
sports 3% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +22.4% +10.7% 64% 64% +31.7%
≤30d 23 +25.2% +13.3% 65% 65% +28.4%
≤90d 98 -0.1% -9.6% 54% 52% +13.1%
all 135 +5.9% -4.2% 60% 57% +12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 57% +12.9%
10% -13.3% 55% +2.1%
15% -21.7% 51% -7.7%
20% -29.4% 34% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$15 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$841
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses81 / 54
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)135 / 135
History coverage108d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 135 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $111 +$42 +38%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $49 −$48 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$15 -72%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $192 +$87 +46%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $108 +$83 +76%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $161 −$92 -57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $113 +$163 +145%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $81 +$73 +89%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $114 +$173 +152%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $115 +$62 +54%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $58 +$92 +160%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $57 −$57 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $126 +$117 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 +$37 +64%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $114 +$48 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $57 −$57 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $29 +$30 +106%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $57 +$91 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 31 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 10 $16 −$14 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 09 $7 −$5 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 09 $29 +$14 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 09 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 09 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 09 $43 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 09 $21 +$11 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 09 $56 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 09 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 29 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 29 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 29 $21 +$37 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 29 $102 −$26 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 29 $36 +$25 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 29 $42 +$40 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 29 $31 +$33 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 29 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 29 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 29 $21 −$12 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 29 $21 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 29 $16 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $153 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $111 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $49 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $34 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $279 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $192 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $191 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 25h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $71 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 32¢ $35 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 32¢ $25 25h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 74¢ $151 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $276 45h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $113 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 87¢ $154 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $81 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $287 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $114 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $82 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $177 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $115 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $150 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 284 history records