Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d0d…ca21 sports 536 markets active 2h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,880 (-8%) realized −$1,880 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%224W / 312L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$245est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$18
14 days−$184
30 days−$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$1,363
crypto 18% −$612
other 2% +$30
weather 1% −$197
culture 0% +$28
economics 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +27.5% +15.3% 50% 50% -4.5%
≤30d 27 -5.7% -14.7% 41% 37% -35.0%
≤90d 301 -11.6% -20.1% 44% 42% -18.1%
all 536 -10.1% -18.6% 42% 40% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 40% -17.4%
10% -26.4% 37% -25.3%
15% -33.5% 34% -32.6%
20% -40.0% 29% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$34 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,880
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses224 / 312
Est. fees paid−$245
Open positions0
Markets (closed)536 / 536
History coverage195d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 536 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Jun 19 $24 +$30 +124%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$26 +165%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $18 +$22 +127%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $37 −$21 -56%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $33 +$15 +45%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $35 −$6 -18%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $80 −$24 -30%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $16 +$5 +30%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $35 −$5 -14%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$12 +136%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $59 −$31 -52%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $65 −$65 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $33 +$22 +65%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 9? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $31 +$34 +108%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Jonas Forejtek Jun 09 $10 +$7 +69%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Ella McDonald Jun 09 $15 +$9 +60%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 08 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan Jun 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 08 $118 −$118 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $20 −$8 -42%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Pakistan win? May 20 $34 −$26 -76%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 19 $97 −$97 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Guernsey vs Sweden May 17 $50 −$11 -22%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 17 $33 −$33 -100%
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 16 $23 +$19 +84%
Geneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Miguel Damas May 16 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 11? May 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 13? May 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mariano Navone vs Hamad Medjedovic May 11 $39 −$7 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 11 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 11 $20 +$6 +30%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 12? May 11 $47 −$28 -59%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Connecticut Sun May 10 $42 +$14 +34%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $55 +$47 +86%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $207 −$10 -5%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Botic van de Zandschul May 10 $28 −$10 -36%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 10 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $35 +$5 +14%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 08 $39 −$39 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 08 $202 −$63 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas SELL Texas Super Kings 96¢ $55 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 37¢ $16 4h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas BUY Texas Super Kings 42¢ $24 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland SELL West Indies 95¢ $40 9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY West Indies 41¢ $18 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 35h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 52¢ $17 6d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Marcos Giron 41¢ $16 6d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 49¢ $20 6d
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina SELL Federico Cina 79¢ $21 6d
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina BUY Federico Cina 58¢ $16 6d
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina SELL Federico Cina 51¢ $16 6d
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina BUY Federico Cina 35¢ $11 6d
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina SELL Zdenek Kolar 67¢ $11 6d
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina BUY Zdenek Kolar 36¢ $6 6d
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla SELL Dusan Lajovic 35¢ $6 6d
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Dusan Lajovic 55¢ $10 6d
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla SELL Dusan Lajovic 39¢ $10 6d
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Dusan Lajovic 58¢ $15 6d
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Zhizhen Zhang 21¢ $5 6d
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Zhizhen Zhang 24¢ $9 6d
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 78¢ $29 6d
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 57¢ $21 6d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato SELL Marco Cecchinato 38¢ $21 6d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato BUY Marco Cecchinato 28¢ $16 6d
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis SELL Dali Blanch $2 6d
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis BUY Dali Blanch 52¢ $14 6d
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis SELL Dali Blanch 74¢ $0 6d
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis SELL Dali Blanch 80¢ $27 6d
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis BUY Dali Blanch 60¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1842 history records