Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:05:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0D 0x0d10…a713 weather 511 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,352 (+48%) realized +$2,351 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%180W / 323L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day31.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$158
14 days+$196
30 days+$423
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$2,311
other 0% −$13
politics 0% +$3
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +59.2% +44.1% 43% 43% +22.6%
≤30d 212 +33.1% +20.4% 33% 33% +12.3%
≤90d 503 +47.1% +33.1% 36% 34% +34.6%
all 503 +47.1% +33.1% 36% 34% +34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +33.1% 34% +34.6%
10% ← realistic here +20.3% 32% +21.8%
15% +8.7% 31% +10.0%
20% -1.9% 29% -0.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$6 · ×3.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$2,351
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses180 / 323
Open positions8
Markets (closed)503 / 511
History coverage86d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 503 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 32¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+380%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 28¢ $2 $6 +$3 (+155%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Yes 34¢ 52¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+54%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Yes 25¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-66%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 255 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $17 +$26 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$7 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$16 +456%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$5 +141%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 +$14 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 +$35 +301%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$65 +1389%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$10 +264%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$38 +592%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$17 +288%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $17 −$16 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$19 +182%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$13 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$5 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$5 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$6 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 11 $64 −$62 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 11 $9 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$5 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$7 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $22 −$12 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 88¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 88¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 39¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 28h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 30h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 30h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 30h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 45h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 45h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $25 46h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 92¢ $46 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.64 · official $31.64 (match) · 2828 history records