Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0D 0x0d15…c454 world 88 markets active 6d ago coverage 104d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL −$44,213 (-5%) realized −$71,998 · open +$27,785
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate73%47W / 17L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$11,153per market
Trades / day31.1pace
Fees−$1,011est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$297,337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 104d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$163,213
other 15% −$24,266
sports 8% +$3,978
crypto 4% −$11,067
tech 1% +$1,324
economics 0% +$8,318
politics 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -55.3% -59.5% 23% 15% -53.2%
≤30d 26 -8.0% -16.8% 62% 42% -18.4%
≤90d 60 +30.4% +18.0% 73% 55% +5.1%
all 64 +28.4% +16.2% 73% 56% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.2% 56% +4.2%
10% +5.1% 44% -5.8%
15% ← realistic here -5.1% 28% -14.9%
20% -14.4% 20% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$15,557) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +56% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
22.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,396 vs −$5,465 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$297,337
Realized−$71,998
Unrealized+$27,785
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses47 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1,011
Open positions37
Markets (closed)64 / 88
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$11,153
Trades / day31.1
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 80¢ 90¢ $61,494 $69,154 +$7,659 (+12%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 97¢ $51,563 $58,124 +$6,561 (+13%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 89¢ 100¢ $43,283 $48,319 +$5,036 (+12%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 85¢ 94¢ $21,477 $23,791 +$2,313 (+11%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $13,105 $14,480 +$1,375 (+10%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $26,475 $13,997 −$12,479 (-47%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 20¢ 62¢ $3,875 $12,193 +$8,318 (+215%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $9,140 $9,585 +$445 (+5%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 68¢ 100¢ $5,443 $7,985 +$2,542 (+47%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 83¢ $6,812 $7,158 +$346 (+5%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? No 40¢ 96¢ $2,000 $4,792 +$2,792 (+140%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 75¢ 93¢ $3,672 $4,553 +$881 (+24%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 70¢ 81¢ $3,864 $4,487 +$623 (+16%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No 75¢ 86¢ $3,750 $4,275 +$525 (+14%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 78¢ $3,483 $3,598 +$115 (+3%)
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 85¢ 91¢ $2,550 $2,730 +$180 (+7%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 41¢ 50¢ $960 $1,175 +$215 (+22%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $1,128 $1,164 +$36 (+3%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $967 $1,082 +$115 (+12%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 76¢ 52¢ $1,520 $1,030 −$490 (-32%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 98¢ $621 $872 +$251 (+40%)
Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 86¢ $656 $748 +$92 (+14%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 86¢ $513 $548 +$35 (+7%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? No 79¢ 100¢ $295 $373 +$78 (+26%)
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31? No 73¢ 75¢ $217 $223 +$6 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $25,030 +$830 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $522 +$362 +70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $440 +$560 +127%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $34,420 −$6,465 -19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 14 $560 −$560 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $342 −$342 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $771 −$771 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,202 −$1,202 -100%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 14 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $1,002 −$1,002 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9,890 −$9,890 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $15,557 −$15,557 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $15,893 −$15,893 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $5,040 +$960 +19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $730 +$270 +37%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $3,565 +$149 +4%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 10 $726 +$1,136 +156%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $21,931 +$867 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $6,648 +$297 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $3,423 +$1,843 +54%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $19,923 +$4,490 +22%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $2,789 +$833 +30%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $64,589 +$5,411 +8%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? May 29 $2,037 +$963 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 28 $7,760 +$8,240 +106%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 26 $8,600 +$1,400 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 22 $8,400 +$1,600 +19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 11 $31,441 +$11,239 +36%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $8,323 +$28,436 +342%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 08 $15,821 +$4,236 +27%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? May 06 $12,042 −$12,042 -100%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 06 $560 −$560 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 06 $852 −$852 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $15,711 +$897 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $57,359 +$18,444 +32%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $111,744 +$16,151 +14%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 25 $179 +$179 +100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $4,930 +$1,557 +32%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $9,137 +$681 +8%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 21 $23,285 +$8,098 +35%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 19 $1,038 +$32 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $5,159 +$1,314 +26%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $906 +$90 +10%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 12 $28,619 +$115 +0%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $5,850 +$3,150 +54%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 08 $19,602 +$1,157 +6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 08 $6,776 −$2,113 -31%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $24,230 −$6,191 -26%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $6,000 −$5,980 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 03 $4,113 +$1,680 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $1,520 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $25,030 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $1,872 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $100 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $323 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $659 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $168 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $5,040 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $840 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $15,567 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $833 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $214 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $216 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $522 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $1,034 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $1,875 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $3,810 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $3,833 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $2,554 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $4,350 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1,796 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $3,576 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $96 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $434 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $456 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $45 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $262 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $52 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5,247 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297,336.84 · official $297,381.53 (match) · 3500 history records