Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:29:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0D 0x0d1c…3347 sports 223 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$17,274 (+43%) realized +$17,300 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%98W / 123L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day55.3pace
Fees−$683est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$148
7 days+$1,638
14 days+$2,387
30 days+$14,872
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$3,116
other 40% +$11,731
politics 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 +27.0% +14.9% 30% 26% +3.8%
≤30d 221 +34.8% +22.0% 44% 38% +33.5%
≤90d 221 +34.8% +22.0% 44% 38% +33.5%
all 221 +34.8% +22.0% 44% 38% +33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.0% 38% +33.5%
10% ← realistic here +10.3% 33% +20.8%
15% -0.3% 26% +9.1%
20% -10.1% 20% -1.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +43% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$32 · ×6.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.79 per $1 lost it wins $4.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$17,300
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses98 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$683
Open positions2
Markets (closed)221 / 223
History coverage27d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day55.3
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 45¢ 50¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$59 -196%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$20 -200%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $304 −$10 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $805 −$18 -2%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $204 −$15 -8%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $385 +$1 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $252 +$34 +14%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 +$24 +245%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $250 +$45 +18%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$19 +185%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,421 −$102 -7%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $127 +$596 +468%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $790 −$60 -8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $618 −$173 -28%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $425 −$43 -10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 −$10 -194%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$20 -195%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$17 +162%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $5 −$10 -200%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 −$10 -200%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $11 +$12 +105%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $193 +$80 +42%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $296 −$7 -2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$49 -197%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$10 -200%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 −$50 -196%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $462 −$133 -29%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $324 −$159 -49%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $4 $0 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $12 +$11 +86%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$20 -195%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 +$89 +799%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $13 +$14 +105%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $9 $0 -1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$1 -7%
IFK Mariehamn vs. IF Gnistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $65 +$32 +49%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 +$20 +200%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$20 -196%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $15 −$30 -197%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 −$10 -194%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 −$20 -198%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $64 +$42 +66%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $961 +$172 +18%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $18 −$19 -104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 5m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 5m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $23 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $3 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 55¢ $123 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 55¢ $448 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $304 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $270 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $301 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $305 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $279 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $304 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 50¢ $321 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 46¢ $305 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $98 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $297 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $100 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $99 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 37¢ $93 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $97 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $302 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $297 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.13 · official $22.13 (match) · 1600 history records