Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0D 0x0d20…2032 sports 321 markets active 6h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate77%241W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$20
other 21% −$10
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -4.7% -13.8% 70% 56% -15.4%
≤30d 111 +2.1% -7.6% 77% 59% -9.3%
≤90d 277 +3.6% -6.3% 76% 65% -9.9%
all 313 +4.7% -5.3% 77% 66% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 66% -8.8%
10% -14.4% 40% -17.5%
15% -22.6% 27% -25.5%
20% -30.2% 12% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses241 / 72
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)313 / 321
History coverage102d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 313 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $22 $26 +$4 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $24 $19 −$5 (-22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+34%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-30%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +11%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +29%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +21%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $1 $0 +17%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $1 $0 +27%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -63%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $1 $0 +5%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $1 $0 +6%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 19 $2 −$1 -36%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $1 $0 +13%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 18 $3 −$2 -47%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +24%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -82%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $2 +$2 +99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +32%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +17%
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) Jun 18 $5 +$1 +14%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $1 $0 +40%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -91%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +24%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $6 +$1 +10%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 -29%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -90%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $12 +$1 +10%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 77¢ $1 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $1 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 90¢ $2 9h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 85¢ $1 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1 12h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 27¢ $0 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 34h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 78¢ $1 34h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1 35h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Canada 86¢ $1 36h
Spread: Canada (-4.5) SELL Qatar 35¢ $2 36h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 88¢ $1 36h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 95¢ $1 36h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 36h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) SELL Qatar 10¢ $0 36h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) SELL Qatar 12¢ $0 36h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) SELL Qatar 90¢ $4 36h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 45¢ $2 36h
Spread: Canada (-4.5) BUY Qatar 65¢ $3 36h
Spread: Canada (-4.5) BUY Qatar 65¢ $1 36h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Qatar 77¢ $1 36h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 66¢ $1 37h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 44h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1 44h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 44h
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) BUY Uzbekistan 87¢ $5 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $1 2d
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 71¢ $1 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.74 · official $110.74 (match) · 773 history records