Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d20…f812 sports 1370 markets active 2d ago coverage 86d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,350 (-19%) realized −$9,350 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%601W / 765L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Fees−$481est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 86d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$973
finance 17% −$98
other 12% −$637
world 2% +$106
politics 1% −$2
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -10.8% -19.3% 38% 36% -32.9%
≤30d 235 -0.4% -9.9% 39% 38% -19.2%
≤90d 1366 +0.3% -9.2% 44% 43% -12.5%
all 1366 +0.3% -9.2% 44% 43% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 43% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 43% -20.9%
15% -25.8% 42% -28.5%
20% -33.1% 41% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$27 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,350
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses601 / 765
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$481
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1366 / 1370
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1366 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $16 −$15 -98%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $384 −$87 -23%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 +$3 +21%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 −$24 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$10 +63%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $14 −$13 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$14 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 +$13 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$21 +226%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 +$44 +107%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $18 −$17 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $37 −$36 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$23 +226%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $10 +$49 +474%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$17 +165%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$15 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$11 +111%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$9 +88%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 +$11 +70%
Sagan Tosu vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Sagan Tosu vs. Shōnan Bellmāre: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-06-06? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $56 −$56 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$11 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 42h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $16 42h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $18 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 61¢ $18 44h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $25 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 83¢ $25 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $14 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $15 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $15 47h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $44 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 18¢ $15 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $19 2d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $29 2d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $50 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $14 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $84 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $21 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $18 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $41 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $58 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $25 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records