Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:21:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d21…5764 other 186 markets active 2h ago coverage 548d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$385 (+3%) realized +$385 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate58%107W / 77L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$2
crypto 28% +$5
sports 11% +$435
politics 5% +$2
economics 2% $0
world 2% −$49
finance 1% −$10
tech 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +0.7% -8.9% 67% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 17 -5.8% -14.8% 35% 0% -12.5%
all 184 -1.4% -10.8% 58% 2% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 2% -7.2%
10% -19.3% 1% -16.1%
15% -27.1% 1% -24.2%
20% -34.3% 1% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.16 per $1 lost it wins $4.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

548d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$385
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses107 / 77
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)184 / 186
History coverage548d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $83 $82 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 01 $68 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $65 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? May 25 $67 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? May 21 $111 $0 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 19 $110 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 16 $216 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $108 $0 +0%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 10 $28 −$1 -2%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 10 $6 $0 +0%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 10 $15 $0 +2%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on April 9? Apr 09 $62 −$6 -10%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 9? Apr 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $113 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 01 $108 +$5 +5%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 26 $99 +$3 +3%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 25 $105 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $105 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $106 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Tate post 160-189 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 18 $105 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Hawks Mar 17 $560 +$440 +79%
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 16 $105 +$4 +3%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 16 $179 +$11 +6%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $135 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 14 $109 +$11 +10%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $227 −$7 -3%
Will Andrew Tate post 160-189 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $121 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 12 $356 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 10 $112 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 08 $140 −$19 -14%
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack? Mar 08 $25 −$1 -6%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on January 2? Mar 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 07 $14 +$6 +42%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 01 $255 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 08 $242 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? Feb 08 $100 +$2 +2%
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? Feb 08 $18 $0 -2%
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? Feb 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Feb 07 $120 $0 -0%
Big Game: National Anthem O/U 119.5 seconds Feb 07 $34 −$3 -9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 6? Feb 06 $110 −$12 -11%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 05 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.35 (HIGH) by Februa Feb 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? Feb 03 $130 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 29 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 29 $128 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026 Jan 20 $449 −$10 -2%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 20 $138 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 20 $138 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $83 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $69 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $68 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $66 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $44 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $21 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $67 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $67 29d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 30d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? SELL No 100¢ $111 32d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $111 34d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? SELL Down 50¢ $3 34d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? SELL Down 50¢ $4 34d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? SELL Down 50¢ $1 34d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? SELL Down 50¢ $9 34d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? SELL Down 50¢ $6 34d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? SELL Down 50¢ $7 34d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? SELL Down 50¢ $6 34d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? SELL Down 50¢ $7 34d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? SELL Down 50¢ $6 34d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? SELL Down 50¢ $6 34d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? SELL Down 50¢ $6 34d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? SELL Down 50¢ $5 34d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? SELL Down 50¢ $6 34d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? SELL Down 50¢ $6 34d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? SELL Down 50¢ $6 34d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? SELL Down 50¢ $2 34d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? SELL Down 50¢ $6 34d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? SELL Down 50¢ $6 34d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? BUY Down 50¢ $3 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.27 · official $151.27 (match) · 635 history records