Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:02:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d27…fafa crypto 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (139 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$499 (+14%) realized +$499 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate58%83W / 61L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day139.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$693
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (139 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 +7.3% -2.9% 58% 43% +7.7%
≤30d 144 +7.3% -2.9% 58% 43% +7.7%
≤90d 144 +7.3% -2.9% 58% 43% +7.7%
all 144 +7.3% -2.9% 58% 43% +7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover139.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.9% 43% +7.7%
10% ← realistic here -12.2% 35% -2.6%
15% -20.7% 28% -12.0%
20% -28.5% 19% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$499
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses83 / 61
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)144 / 144
History coverage4d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day139.4
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 144 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$22 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $18 +$25 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $150 −$11 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $2 +$14 +752%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $425 −$13 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$23 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$19 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $155 +$216 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$6 +120%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $254 −$77 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $17 −$13 -73%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$4 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$23 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$6 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$10 +197%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$19 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$11 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$5 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$18 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $13 −$10 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $60 +$64 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$8 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $60 +$26 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $18 −$12 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $85 +$34 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $57 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $20 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $72 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $20 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $30 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $30 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $30 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $21 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $10 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.03 · official $84.03 (match) · 623 history records