Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:35:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0D 0x0d2c…9c56 crypto 197 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,910 (+11%) realized +$1,910 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate66%131W / 66L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,079
7 days+$1,267
14 days+$1,646
30 days+$1,993
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,032
other 0% −$12
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -3.6% -12.8% 77% 50% +0.1%
≤30d 109 -4.4% -13.5% 70% 44% +1.7%
≤90d 197 -3.5% -12.7% 66% 46% +1.2%
all 197 -3.5% -12.7% 66% 46% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 46% +1.2%
10% -21.0% 30% -8.5%
15% -28.7% 18% -17.3%
20% -35.7% 11% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$11 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.89 per $1 lost it wins $3.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,910
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses131 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)197 / 197
History coverage46d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 197 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $1,548 +$557 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $111 +$36 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $139 −$67 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $1,021 +$33 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $1,030 +$56 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $1,027 +$156 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $905 +$39 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1,015 +$38 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $1,007 +$42 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $914 +$190 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1,004 +$32 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $91 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $812 +$197 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $33 +$16 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $24 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $50 −$24 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$13 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $442 +$23 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$12 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 07 $500 +$398 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $982 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1,123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1,043 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $505 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $228 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $826 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1,021 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1,017 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1,030 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1,183 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1,027 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $944 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $905 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1,053 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 520 history records