trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 10 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 60% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 60% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 25 | -2.9% | -12.2% | 68% | 0% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.2% | 0% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -20.6% | 0% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -28.3% | 0% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -35.3% | 0% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $28 | $28 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 04 | $32 | $0 | -1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 04 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 03 | $25 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 03 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 02 | $25 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 30 | $29 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 30 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 29 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 29 | $16 | +$1 | +8% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 28 | $28 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 24 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Jul 01 | $86 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jun 29 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? | Jun 26 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Chi Hyun Chung win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Jun 05 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? | May 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? | Apr 24 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Donald Trump attend Pope Francis' funeral? | Apr 24 | $84 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? | Apr 24 | $81 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can | Apr 24 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Anamaria Gavrilă advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Ru | Apr 23 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 22 | $15 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $79000 on Apr 25? | Apr 22 | $8 | $0 | +4% |
| Will "The Accountant 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher? | Apr 21 | $89 | +$1 | +1% |