Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0D 0x0d34…3e28 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$433 (+30%) realized +$275 · open +$158
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate81%17W / 4L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$718now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$236
14 days+$251
30 days+$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$409
politics 2% +$2
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +35.6% +22.7% 77% 62% +20.0%
≤30d 21 +28.4% +16.1% 81% 57% +18.5%
≤90d 21 +28.4% +16.1% 81% 57% +18.5%
all 21 +28.4% +16.1% 81% 57% +18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.1% 57% +18.5%
10% +5.0% 48% +7.2%
15% -5.1% 33% -3.2%
20% -14.4% 14% -12.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$2 · ×9.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×38.93 per $1 lost it wins $38.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$718
Realized+$275
Unrealized+$158
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses17 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)21 / 36
History coverage30d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 22 $175 +$28 +16%
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Jun 22 $19 $0 -1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 +$6 +46%
Will Ecuador be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIF Jun 21 $10 +$3 +25%
Will Ecuador be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Jun 21 $51 −$5 -10%
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $25 +$2 +9%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 20 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $127 +$72 +57%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 18 $100 +$31 +31%
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $53 +$23 +43%
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $22 +$37 +170%
Will Exequiel Palacios be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $51 +$40 +78%
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $26 +$12 +48%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $35 +$2 +5%
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 30 $3 $0 +3%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2 $0 -9%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2 $0 +22%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 30 $1 $0 +17%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1 +$1 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 1h
Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $25 1h
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 1h
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL Yes 71¢ $204 1h
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $19 1h
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World SELL Yes 51¢ $19 1h
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World BUY Yes 50¢ $19 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $13 25h
Will Ecuador be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIF SELL Yes 54¢ $13 25h
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St BUY Yes 67¢ $35 27h
Will Ecuador be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIF BUY Yes 42¢ $10 27h
Will Ecuador be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 SELL Yes 60¢ $45 28h
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St BUY Yes 67¢ $40 36h
Will Croatia finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 65¢ $40 36h
Will Scotland be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 BUY Yes 62¢ $51 37h
Will Ecuador be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 BUY Yes 65¢ $51 37h
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 68¢ $27 46h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 70¢ $50 2d
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 2d
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 60¢ $49 2d
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2d
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $25 3d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 3d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 3d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $72 3d
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 84¢ $131 3d
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY Yes 27¢ $51 3d
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY Yes 54¢ $51 3d
Will Iraq be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $22 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $718.01 · official $718.01 (match) · 74 history records