Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:34:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d36…e262 other 238 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 226L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$31
sports 25% −$22
politics 10% −$8
culture 8% −$8
crypto 6% −$5
economics 5% −$3
world 3% −$5
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 190 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)238 / 238
History coverage128d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 238 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $21 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $393 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $246 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $387 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $367 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $439 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $233 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $242 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $212 $0 +0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $524 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $207 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $479 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $376 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $115 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $598 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $187 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $354 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $219 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $382 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $147 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $204 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $162 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $127 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $297 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $236 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $238 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $245 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 08 $303 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $404 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $189 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 05 $491 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 1h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 3h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 10h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 12h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 13h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 15h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $27 15h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $21 16h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $21 18h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $12 18h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $9 20h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $48 22h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 23h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 24h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 26h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 30h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 32h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $48 33h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 36h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 37h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $48 38h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $49 40h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 41h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 42h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1348 history records