Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:35:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d36…0a39 other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$228 (-14%) realized −$222 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%9W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$486now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$151
14 days−$216
30 days−$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$84
sports 18% −$167
crypto 5% +$23
world 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-55.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -45.7% -50.8% 23% 23% -24.7%
≤30d 42 -48.4% -53.4% 21% 21% -27.0%
≤90d 42 -48.4% -53.4% 21% 21% -27.0%
all 44 -50.8% -55.5% 20% 20% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.5% 20% -28.2%
10% -59.7% 18% -35.1%
15% -63.6% 18% -41.3%
20% -67.2% 14% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$19 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$486
Realized−$222
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses9 / 35
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions7
Markets (closed)44 / 51
History coverage245d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $86 $86 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $85 $86 +$0 (+1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $62 $60 −$2 (-4%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $32 $30 −$2 (-8%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $29 +$71 +250%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $19 −$19 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $18 +$82 +442%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $86 +$14 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $83 −$83 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $65 +$35 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $69 +$31 +46%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$2 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $99 +$51 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $59 +$41 +70%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 +$74 +291%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $28 −$27 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$15 +44%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 25? Oct 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on October 25? Oct 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $86 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $101 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 2d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 2d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $86 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 4d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $485.50 · official $485.50 (match) · 61 history records