Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d37…82cd other 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$85 (-1%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%17W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$35
14 days−$50
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$49
politics 31% −$23
sports 18% −$12
crypto 6% −$5
finance 4% −$9
world 3% +$1
culture 2% $0
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -2.1% -11.4% 17% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 69 -1.7% -11.1% 9% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 108 -1.1% -10.6% 10% 0% -10.1%
all 128 -1.1% -10.5% 13% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses17 / 111
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage99d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? No 98¢ 94¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $55 −$2 -3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $154 −$3 -2%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $46 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $55 −$2 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $116 $0 +0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $178 −$3 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $294 −$3 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $108 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $49 −$3 -6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 10 $23 $0 -1%
Will Mike Maignan record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 10 $58 −$16 -28%
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 10 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $65 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 09 $22 −$9 -40%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 07 $40 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $87 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $209 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 04 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 02 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $470 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $25 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $665 −$4 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $146 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $212 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $56 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $209 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $118 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 98¢ $15 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 6h
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 98¢ $24 6h
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $25 12h
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $45 13h
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $46 21h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $55 22h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $21 29h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $29 29h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $5 29h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $55 29h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $55 36h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 92¢ $54 37h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $55 42h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $46 43h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $46 47h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $10 47h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 2d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 2d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $9 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $54 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $11 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $44 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 97¢ $15 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $15 3d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $41 3d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $41 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.15 · official $14.15 (match) · 472 history records