Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:21:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0D 0x0d37…bba4 world 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 406d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate50%25W / 25L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$1
other 31% +$2
politics 7% −$3
crypto 5% $0
economics 3% +$3
culture 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 17% -9.4%
≤30d 23 +0.8% -8.8% 43% 9% -9.4%
≤90d 23 +0.8% -8.8% 43% 9% -9.4%
all 50 +39.6% +26.3% 50% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.3% 8% -9.4%
10% +14.2% 4% -18.0%
15% +3.2% 2% -26.0%
20% -6.9% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +79% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

406d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses25 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage406d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $91 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $42 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $46 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $11 −$2 -15%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $9 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $44 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $43 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $45 −$2 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $62 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $20 +$2 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $12 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $3 −$2 -54%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Jalen Brunson Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 04 $15 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 45% and 47% of the vote in the South Ko Jun 03 $3 −$1 -23%
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele Jun 02 $15 $0 -1%
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? May 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? May 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 29 $4 $0 +2%
XRP above $2.70 on May 30? May 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30? May 28 $5 $0 -6%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 23–30? May 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? May 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? May 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Finland win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 23 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? May 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 20 $27 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 17 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $42 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $2 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $32 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $11 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $5 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $39 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $6 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $46 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $46 38h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $37 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $37 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 44¢ $9 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $11 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $48 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $48 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $5 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 164 history records