Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:17:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d38…71ef crypto 274 markets active 20h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$585 (-12%) realized −$545 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate36%97W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$163
crypto 37% −$396
other 9% −$63
tech 2% −$30
finance 1% −$15
world 1% +$5
weather 0% −$5
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -19.2% -26.9% 23% 16% -3.1%
≤30d 98 -25.8% -32.9% 27% 22% -13.7%
≤90d 208 -14.9% -23.0% 29% 26% -24.2%
all 272 -10.8% -19.3% 36% 30% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 30% -21.6%
10% -27.0% 26% -29.1%
15% -34.1% 22% -36.0%
20% -40.5% 17% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$545
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses97 / 175
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)272 / 274
History coverage97d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in June? Yes 28¢ 16¢ $73 $43 −$30 (-41%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $29 $19 −$10 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $68 −$18 -27%
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $25 −$3 -12%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$11 -56%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 16 $11 −$5 -48%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$9 -32%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$59 +194%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $73 +$81 +111%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$2 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 13 $11 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$23 +241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +36%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 11 $16 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $76 −$13 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$6 -49%
ITF Guimaraes: Katherine Sebov vs Chelsea Fontenel Jun 11 $15 −$3 -19%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 11 $15 −$7 -48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $19 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$4 -14%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$4 -68%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $17 +$10 +57%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $3 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $28 −$2 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $7 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $15 −$2 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $17 −$6 -37%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $70 −$50 -72%
Seattle Storm vs. Toronto Tempo May 31 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $24 −$5 -20%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 30 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 30 $23 −$7 -31%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $340 −$98 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 20h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 79¢ $47 20h
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 64¢ $48 20h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 20h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 39¢ $21 20h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 20h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 20h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 20h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 21h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 22h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 22h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $7 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.58 · official $61.58 (match) · 1055 history records