Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:45:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0D 0x0d3a…7192 crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate81%26W / 6L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$4
economics 16% +$8
politics 15% $0
other 9% +$3
tech 6% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 32 -1.8% -11.2% 81% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -8.7%
10% -19.7% 0% -17.4%
15% -27.4% 0% -25.4%
20% -34.6% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.57 per $1 lost it wins $7.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses26 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage243d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? Jun 26 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 09 $52 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 02 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 02 $149 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 12 $46 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February? Mar 12 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of January? Feb 08 $44 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Feb 08 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Jan 27 $44 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 22 $36 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? Jan 22 $65 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 15 $144 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 30 $23 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 30 $113 +$7 +6%
Will Solana reach $250 in November? Dec 04 $24 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $260 in November? Dec 04 $34 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $270 in November? Dec 04 $54 +$1 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 14 $112 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 11 $112 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 31? Nov 10 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Nov 10 $5 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Nov 10 $11 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? Nov 10 $11 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 10 $14 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 10 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 26? Oct 31 $3 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $23 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on October 26? Oct 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $52 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $52 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $52 31d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $105 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $149 105d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 100¢ $46 123d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 123d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $102 135d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $44 135d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $58 135d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $58 137d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 137d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $44 137d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of January? BUY No 96¢ $44 150d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? SELL No 100¢ $44 150d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $101 154d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $36 154d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $65 154d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $65 161d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY No 99¢ $44 161d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $36 161d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $144 177d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 94¢ $113 203d
Will Solana reach $270 in November? BUY No 99¢ $54 223d
Will Solana reach $260 in November? BUY No 99¢ $34 223d
Will Solana reach $250 in November? BUY No 99¢ $24 223d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $112 223d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $112 226d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 226d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 227d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records