Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d3b…eedb sports 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+1%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate73%97W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$41
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$16
other 3% −$5
crypto 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +2.4% -7.3% 78% 14% -8.2%
≤30d 56 +0.8% -8.8% 79% 11% -8.2%
≤90d 92 +1.1% -8.5% 77% 21% -8.5%
all 133 -4.6% -13.7% 73% 22% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 22% -10.0%
10% -21.9% 9% -18.6%
15% -29.5% 3% -26.5%
20% -36.4% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses97 / 36
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions0
Markets (closed)133 / 133
History coverage149d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 133 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $192 −$14 -7%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $202 +$13 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $97 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $84 +$13 +15%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $75 +$9 +12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $71 +$4 +6%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $69 +$2 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $67 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $88 −$21 -24%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $84 +$4 +5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $83 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $80 +$4 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $147 +$8 +5%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $69 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $64 +$6 +9%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $63 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $51 +$12 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $49 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $47 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $44 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $40 +$4 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $45 −$5 -10%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $40 +$4 +11%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $72 +$5 +7%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $64 +$3 +4%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $36 −$2 -7%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $155 +$7 +5%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $27 +$1 +2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $83 −$1 -1%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $28 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $22 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $195 +$5 +3%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $22 +$2 +8%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $25 −$3 -11%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $22 +$3 +12%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $21 $0 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $128 −$41 -32%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $61 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $7 −$7 -94%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $134 −$7 -5%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $65 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $70 +$3 +4%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $138 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $50 +$5 +10%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $58 +$11 +20%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $40 +$2 +6%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $40 −$18 -44%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $60 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $40 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 88¢ $104 44m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 77¢ $92 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 64¢ $74 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 85¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 81¢ $106 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 76¢ $101 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 55¢ $109 5h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $101 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $104 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 91¢ $97 25h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 82¢ $97 26h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 70¢ $84 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 90¢ $84 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 80¢ $75 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $1 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $75 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 93¢ $71 28h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Chicago Cubs 63¢ $71 41h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 60¢ $69 41h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 67¢ $69 43h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $67 43h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 60¢ $68 45h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 77¢ $88 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 99¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 99¢ $87 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 94¢ $84 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 89¢ $84 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 87¢ $83 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 70¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 380 history records