Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:44:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0D 0x0d3b…72ac crypto 1691 markets active 4d ago coverage 129d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 129d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$485 (-5%) realized −$485 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate94%1589W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$7
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -1.0% -10.4% 93% 22% -10.4%
≤30d 318 +2.6% -7.1% 97% 17% -7.1%
≤90d 1092 +0.1% -9.4% 95% 17% -9.6%
all 1691 +0.1% -9.5% 94% 21% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 21% -10.0%
10% -18.1% 1% -18.6%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$485
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1589 / 102
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1691 / 1691
History coverage129d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1691 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records