Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0D 0x0d3c…104b sports 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$305 (+17%) realized +$305 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%24W / 32L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days−$151
14 days+$82
30 days+$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$415
other 28% −$230
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +0.8% -8.8% 40% 38% -18.0%
≤30d 56 +15.2% +4.2% 43% 41% +0.3%
≤90d 56 +15.2% +4.2% 43% 41% +0.3%
all 56 +15.2% +4.2% 43% 41% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 41% +0.3%
10% -5.7% 38% -9.3%
15% -14.9% 34% -18.1%
20% -23.2% 32% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$24 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses24 / 32
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage18d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-1%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 Over 11¢ 12¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Warriors vs. Clippers Jun 23 $0 $0 —%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $88 −$72 -83%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $82 −$27 -32%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $10 −$8 -81%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $51 +$31 +61%
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $62 −$60 -97%
Ali Olwan: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -94%
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$16 +157%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $108 −$105 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 +$4 +18%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 23 $21 +$55 +267%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $31 +$86 +278%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $36 +$27 +74%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $35 +$5 +15%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $87 +$53 +61%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $9 −$8 -96%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $9 −$9 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $31 −$30 -96%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $86 −$83 -96%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $62 −$60 -97%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $21 +$21 +101%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $21 +$38 +186%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $34 +$17 +51%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $67 −$67 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $21 −$6 -28%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $18 +$11 +63%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $28 +$36 +126%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $16 +$151 +971%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $21 +$17 +82%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $107 −$9 -8%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $49 +$17 +34%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $10 +$16 +157%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $9 +$13 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $50 3m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 11¢ $21 14m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL Yes 10¢ $15 24m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 39¢ $55 24m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $88 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina SELL Liudmila Samsonova $2 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Liudmila Samsonova 15¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 55¢ $82 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $82 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $51 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ann Li 42¢ $31 11h
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ann Li 42¢ $31 13h
Ali Olwan: 1+ goals SELL Yes $0 14h
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $26 14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $41 15h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $24 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $46 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 16h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 99¢ $76 16h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 26¢ $21 16h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Cleveland Guardians 83¢ $117 16h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 16h
Ali Olwan: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $10 16h
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $10 17h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 22¢ $21 17h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 19¢ $10 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 36¢ $21 17h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 13¢ $10 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $62 18h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $36 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.21 · official $68.87 (match) · 124 history records