Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:58:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d40…dfa2 world 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-3%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate21%11W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$3
other 23% −$48
politics 10% +$8
tech 8% $0
crypto 7% −$3
culture 7% $0
sports 5% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 14% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 20 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 20 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.1%
all 53 -2.9% -12.2% 21% 2% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 2% -12.0%
10% -20.6% 0% -20.4%
15% -28.3% 0% -28.1%
20% -35.3% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses11 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage305d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $35 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $34 +$2 +6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $35 +$2 +6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $64 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $66 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $32 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $2 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $3 $0 -13%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $51 −$46 -91%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 19 $2 −$1 -42%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $35 +$7 +21%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 11 $36 $0 +1%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 11 $12 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $2 $0 -2%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 27 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $1 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Aug 23 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $71 $0 -0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2025 US Open? Aug 22 $35 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $12 $0 -1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $38 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $38 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $4 18h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $34 21h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $39 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $35 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $13 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $22 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $35 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $35 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $29 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $29 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $35 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $34 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $37 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $37 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $9 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $37 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $35 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $35 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $32 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $12 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $20 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 191 history records