Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:29:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0D 0x0d42…2eee crypto 552 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$311 (+0%) realized +$332 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%535W / 13L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,079per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$5,914now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$78
14 days+$179
30 days+$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$2,050
other 38% +$405
world 5% −$56
finance 2% +$23
sports 2% −$2,206
tech 1% +$27
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 169 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 336 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 548 +0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$3,749) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$403 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$5,914
Realized+$332
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses535 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)548 / 552
History coverage178d
Avg bet$2,079
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 548 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 99¢ 98¢ $4,502 $4,481 −$20 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $890 $890 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,300 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $521 $521 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $53,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $145 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $1,411 +$13 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 25? Jun 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 25? Jun 26 $74 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 25? Jun 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $4,114 +$4 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.85 on June 25? Jun 26 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 25? Jun 25 $4,124 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 25? Jun 25 $1,793 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $1,791 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $4,120 +$4 +0%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 23? Jun 24 $839 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 23? Jun 24 $576 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 23? Jun 24 $115 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.20 on June 23? Jun 24 $115 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $145 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $1,788 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $5,902 +$5 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $5,896 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $3,403 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $2,486 +$5 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 21? Jun 22 $2,524 +$5 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 21? Jun 22 $3,357 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $5,700 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $175 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 20? Jun 21 $251 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 20? Jun 21 $1,227 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $4,391 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $869 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $608 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $93 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $5,768 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $5,744 +$23 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $5,833 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $5,822 +$11 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 17? Jun 18 $119 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $5,697 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $5,805 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 16? Jun 16 $5,805 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $4,180 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,619 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $4,887 +$30 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 15? Jun 15 $101 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on June 15? Jun 15 $481 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $881 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 15 $877 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $876 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $4,502 42m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $23 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $891 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,300 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $521 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $1,411 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $53,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $1 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $53,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $144 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $4,114 13h
Will XRP dip to $0.85 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $109 13h
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $74 13h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $20 13h
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $49 13h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $1,793 34h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $325 34h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 35h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 35h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,750 35h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,791 2d
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $537 2d
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $39 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $145 2d
Will XRP reach $1.20 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $115 2d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $115 2d
Will Solana reach $75 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $839 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,052 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,033 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 100¢ $1,788 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $5,902 3d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 100¢ $5,167 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,914.41 · official $5,915.76 (match) · 2439 history records