Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:41:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0D 0x0d45…7cb9 politics 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,006per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$8
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 92% −$32
other 4% −$62
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -3.2% -12.5% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 25 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 25 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$899) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$4 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage65d
Avg bet$1,006
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $803 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $804 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $806 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,692 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,682 −$2 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $163 −$61 -37%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $875 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $1,766 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,764 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $878 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $897 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $897 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1,798 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $899 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $901 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $802 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $803 23h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $803 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $804 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $804 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $805 5d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $804 7d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $806 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $807 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $808 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $808 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $809 15d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $810 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $811 17d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $816 18d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $817 19d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $102 21d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $163 22d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $870 23d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $871 25d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $875 25d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $876 26d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $874 27d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $875 28d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $876 29d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $877 30d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $878 32d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $880 32d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $877 33d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $878 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records