Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:33:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d45…973a crypto 1498 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,277 (-7%) realized −$2,343 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%556W / 885L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$68
14 days−$10
30 days+$536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,295
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +43.6% +30.0% 40% 40% -5.6%
≤30d 310 +11.9% +1.2% 36% 35% -3.8%
≤90d 1314 -11.6% -20.1% 38% 36% -20.8%
all 1441 -6.6% -15.5% 39% 37% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 37% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 34% -24.2%
15% -31.0% 31% -31.6%
20% -37.8% 27% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$19 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$2,343
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses556 / 885
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1441 / 1498
History coverage95d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1441 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 21¢ 50¢ $49 $115 +$66 (+136%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$41 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $95 −$91 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $97 −$92 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $73 +$118 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$63 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $37 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$26 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$29 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$11 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$12 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$24 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $43 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$33 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$27 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$16 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $81 −$77 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$60 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$12 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $82 +$53 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $62 +$51 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$84 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$31 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$58 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $94 −$89 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $61 +$127 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $67 −$65 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $95 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $97 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $73 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $37 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $11 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $40 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $22 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $24 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.58 · official $114.58 (match) · 3262 history records